Guide
Likelihood of confusion: how the USPTO and courts decide if a copycat's name is too close to yours
By Josh Pigford, founder of Knockoff. Written . Data as of , re-cut every September
Likelihood of confusion is the legal test for whether ordinary buyers would believe two brands come from the same source. It decides whether the USPTO registers a mark, and it decides whether a court orders a seller to stop. It turns on what buyers would conclude, not on whether the copycat meant to copy.
You are here for one of two reasons. Either you found a store, a listing or an application using a name close to yours, in which case start with the copycat store worked through the factors. Or the USPTO refused your own application over somebody else's mark, in which case start with the real Section 2(d) office action. The test is the same. The forum, the deadline and the bill are not.
The short version
- One standard, three statutes: 15 U.S.C. 1052(d) for registration, 1114(1)(a) for a registered mark in court, 1125(a)(1)(A) for an unregistered one.
- Thirteen du Pont factors at the USPTO, and its own numbered list in almost every federal circuit. The content is largely the same.
- Two are the key considerations in every case: how similar the marks are, and how related the goods are.
- Nobody has to be confused yet. Likelihood is the test.
- Similar names on unrelated goods coexist all the time. Identical names on identical goods are the hardest case to defend.
- Stolen photographs are copyright and a copied shape is trade dress. Only the name runs through this test.
- The clocks are short: 30 days to oppose after publication, three months to answer a refusal.
What likelihood of confusion actually means
The USPTO says it in one sentence on its own page, last updated November 30, 2023: "This is known as a likelihood of confusion, and it's the most common reason for refusing registration." As the Second Circuit puts it in Mushroom Makers v. R.G. Barry Corp., 580 F.2d 44, 47 (2d Cir. 1978), the question is "whether there is any likelihood that an appreciable number of ordinarily prudent purchasers are likely to be misled, or indeed simply confused, as to the source of the goods in question."
One standard sits inside three statutes. 15 U.S.C. 1052(d) bars registration of a mark that "so resembles" a registered mark, or "a mark or trade name previously used in the United States by another and not abandoned", as to be likely "to cause confusion, or to cause mistake, or to deceive". 1114(1)(a) gives the owner of a registered mark a claim in court on the same trigger. And 1125(a)(1)(A) gives you that claim with no registration at all, reaching confusion "as to the affiliation, connection, or association of such person with another person, or as to the origin, sponsorship, or approval of his or her goods". If you never filed anything, your rights before you register run through that third door.
Nobody has to have been confused yet. The USPTO's own examining manual, the TMEP, says so at 1207.01(d)(ii): "the relevant test is likelihood of confusion, not actual confusion." Real confusion is powerful evidence when you have it, and long quiet coexistence with none of it is du Pont factor 8 running the other way.
Nor does it ask whether the other seller meant to copy you. Intent is one factor out of thirteen, and not one of the two key considerations. A copycat who took your photographs and a competitor who landed on a similar name by accident face the same question.
Two situations, two forums, one test
The same three words do different work depending on who is saying them.
- An examining attorney at the USPTO. They apply 15 U.S.C. 1052(d) on their own initiative, weighing the du Pont factors against the application file. That is an ex parte proceeding, meaning you against the office with no other party in the room. The most they can do is refuse to register your mark. No order to stop selling, no money, and they will not go looking for your unregistered use.
- The Trademark Trial and Appeal Board, the TTAB. It hears appeals from those refusals, and it hears oppositions and cancellations, which are inter partes cases with a real opponent on the other side. It decides registrability and nothing else. No damages, no listing taken down.
- A federal district court. It applies its own circuit's factor list, and it is the only one of the three that can order a seller to stop and put money on the table.
The burden is the same in both places. In Cunningham v. Laser Golf, 222 F.3d 943 (Fed. Cir. 2000), the Federal Circuit noted that the opposer "had the burden of proving by a preponderance of the evidence that there was a likelihood of confusion", meaning more likely than not, and an ordinary civil case runs on the same standard. What changes is the price, the calendar and what you hold at the end. What a trademark demand letter can and cannot do covers the step almost everyone takes before either forum.
The 13 du Pont factors, in plain English
These are the factors an examining attorney and the Board work from, set out in In re E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 476 F.2d 1357, 1361 (C.C.P.A. 1973): "In testing for likelihood of confusion under Sec. 2(d), therefore, the following, when of record, must be considered." Two are marked, because TMEP 1207.01 calls them "key considerations in any likelihood of confusion determination", restated by the Federal Circuit in Sunkist Growers v. Intrastate Distributors, 144 F.4th 1376, 1379 (Fed. Cir. 2025).
- 1. The marks themselves. "The similarity or dissimilarity of the marks in their entireties as to appearance, sound, connotation and commercial impression." Key factor.
- 2. The goods or services. "The similarity or dissimilarity and nature of the goods or services as described in an application or registration or in connection with which a prior mark is in use." Key factor.
- 3. Trade channels. "The similarity or dissimilarity of established, likely-to-continue trade channels."
- 4. How buyers buy. "The conditions under which and buyers to whom sales are made, i.e. 'impulse' vs. careful, sophisticated purchasing."
- 5. Fame. "The fame of the prior mark (sales, advertising, length of use)."
- 6. The crowd. "The number and nature of similar marks in use on similar goods."
- 7. Actual confusion. "The nature and extent of any actual confusion."
- 8. Quiet coexistence. "The length of time during and conditions under which there has been concurrent use without evidence of actual confusion."
- 9. Range of goods. The variety of goods a mark is used on, and whether it works as a house mark, a family mark or a single product mark.
- 10. The market interface. Whatever has passed between the two owners: a bare consent to register, an agreement written to prevent confusion, an assignment of the mark and its goodwill, or delay by the prior owner that suggests they never saw confusion either.
- 11. Right to exclude. How far the applicant can stop other people using the mark on its goods.
- 12. How much confusion. "The extent of potential confusion, i.e., whether de minimis or substantial."
- 13. Anything else. "Any other established fact probative of the effect of use."
It is not a scorecard. TMEP 1207.01 quotes du Pont for "[t]here is no litmus rule which can provide a ready guide to all cases" and notes that "only those relevant factors for which there is evidence in the record must be considered". One factor can carry the case: Stratus Networks v. UBTA-UBET, 955 F.3d 994, 998 (Fed. Cir. 2020), holds that "[a]ny single factor may control a particular case." Trade channels, conditions of sale, similar marks in use and a consent agreement "must be considered if there is pertinent evidence in the record", so silence on them is a choice you made. The goods themselves "do not have to be identical or even competitive" (TMEP 1207.01(a)(i), citing Shen Manufacturing v. Ritz Hotel, 393 F.3d 1238 (Fed. Cir. 2004), cooking classes against kitchen textiles).
Strength of the mark is the thing running underneath all of it. A coined or arbitrary name is strong and gets a wide berth. A name that describes what you sell is weak and gets a narrow one, and factor 6 is where that weakness gets proved with third-party registrations. If you are not sure which end of that range your name sits on, which right covers a stolen photo and which covers a copied name sets out the five-rung spectrum from fanciful to generic.
Note what is not compared. 1207.01(b) says "[t]he test is not whether the marks can be distinguished when subjected to a side-by-side comparison", and the analysis runs on the marks "as depicted in the respective application and registration", so your logo, your packaging and your house mark sit outside the frame. So does the class number, which is why which of the 45 classes your products sit in is a filing decision rather than a confusion argument.
How often this happens, and how often it sticks
The factors are documented everywhere. How often an application runs into one is not, so we pulled the USPTO's own bulk files and counted a whole year of filings.
Across 429,192 U.S. trademark applications filed in calendar 2017, a cohort now 99.9% resolved, 56.3% drew at least one office action from the examining attorney and 20.8% of the whole cohort died because the applicant never answered one (Knockoff analysis of USPTO bulk data, as of 2026-09-05).
In counts, from the same 429,192-application cohort. 262,372 registered, 61.1%. 241,502 drew a non-final office action, 56.3%. 178,938 drew no examiner action at all, 41.7%. 89,184 were abandoned under the code the USPTO writes as "FAILURE TO RESPOND OR LATE RESPONSE", 20.8%. 37,828 received a final refusal, 8.8%. 25,286 were suspended, 5.9%. And 1,064 were abandoned after an appeal the applicant fought alone against the examining attorney, 0.3%. The measures overlap: one application can draw an office action, be suspended, be finally refused and then abandoned.
47.3%
of the applications that drew an office action ended up dead
On the office-action subset alone, n = 241,502: 52.5% registered and 47.3% died. An office action is not a refusal. The event counted here covers plain requirements about the identification of goods, a disclaimer, a specimen or the entity type as well as substantive grounds. Knockoff analysis of USPTO bulk data, as of 2026-09-05.
An office action is not a refusal, and 56.3% is not a refusal rate. The event we counted covers plain requirements as well as substantive grounds: fix the identification of goods, add a disclaimer, send a better specimen. Of the 241,502 that drew one, 52.5% registered anyway and 47.3% ended up dead (Knockoff analysis of USPTO bulk data, as of 2026-09-05). The largest single cause of death in the whole cohort is not losing an argument. It is never sending a reply.
Whether you had a lawyer moves the number more than anything else we measured. Of the 289,644 applications with an attorney of record, 65.7% registered; of the 139,548 without one, 51.6% (Knockoff analysis of USPTO bulk data, as of 2026-09-05). On the 433,028 filed March 1 to December 31, 2022, still 8.76% unresolved and therefore a floor, the split runs 61.0% against 41.2%. Gerhardt and Lee, in 112 The Trademark Reporter (2022), found the same shape from other years: "[w]hile 46% of pro se applicants succeed in registering their marks, the registration rate jumps to 60% for those represented by counsel."
How much of that is confusion, specifically? No USPTO bulk product records the statutory ground of a refusal, so it cannot be counted directly. Beebe and Fromer built their own full-text dataset of all 3,764,904 office actions the USPTO issued from 2003 through 2018 and found the confusing-similarity refusal rate rose "from 10.6% of all applications filed in 2003 to 16.0% of those filed in 2017" (112 The Trademark Reporter 901, 967, November to December 2022). Their numerator and our denominator cover the same year and population. Combining the two, roughly 28% of office actions are a confusion problem, which is Knockoff arithmetic over two sources rather than a measurement anyone took. Their 16.0% is itself a floor, because it counts refusals over an already registered mark and citations of earlier pending applications sit on top.
And if you appeal, you lose about nine times in ten. John Welch counts the Board's Section 2(d) appeal decisions by hand every January at TTABlog: 92.5% affirmed in 2022 (200 decisions, 185 affirmances), just under 85% in 2023 as Welch phrases it, about 89.5% in 2024 (228 decisions, 204 affirmances) and 90% in 2025 (206 decisions, 186 affirmances, 20 reversals). Those are one practitioner's annual hand counts, not a USPTO statistic. His explanation, January 8, 2026: "Given the way the Section 2(d) cards are stacked against the applicant, it's not surprising that the percentage tends to stay near 90%." The fight is won in the response to the examining attorney. Where the data came from, and what it cannot tell you.
du Pont, Polaroid, Sleekcraft, Lapp: one test, four names
Four numbered lists, and nobody says how they relate. They are largely the same content under different names, and venue decides which one applies. Sue in California and you get Sleekcraft's eight. Sue in New York, Polaroid's eight. Answer an examining attorney, du Pont's thirteen. McCarthy, quoted in Barton Beebe's survey: "each of the thirteen federal circuit courts of appeal has developed its own version of the list and each appears to be jealous of its own formulation." The Supreme Court has never adopted a national list, and the Federal Circuit treats confusion as a question of law where most circuits treat it as one of fact.
The factor list each United States forum uses. Eleven rows for thirteen circuits: the Federal Circuit is the du Pont row, and the First Circuit uses its own eight from Boston Athletic Ass'n v. Sullivan. Rows marked "opinion" were read in the decision text. Rows marked "reported" carry the cite as published without our re-opening it. Rows marked "Beebe" are as catalogued by Barton Beebe, 94 California Law Review 1581 (2006), notes 3 to 11. Read September 5, 2026. Scroll the table sideways for the factor counts and cites.
| Test | Where it applies | Factors | Cite, and how we checked it |
|---|---|---|---|
| du Pont | USPTO examining attorneys, the TTAB, the Federal Circuit | 13 | 476 F.2d 1357, 1361 (C.C.P.A. 1973). Opinion. |
| Polaroid | 2d Cir. The D.C. Circuit works from the Polaroid factors rather than enumerating its own | 8 | 287 F.2d 492, 495 (2d Cir. 1961), with Basile v. Basile, 899 F.2d 35 (D.C. Cir. 1990). Opinions. |
| Lapp | 3d Cir. Also called the Scott Paper factors | 10 | Interpace Corp. v. Lapp, Inc., 721 F.2d 460, 463 (3d Cir. 1983). Reported. |
| Pizzeria Uno | 4th Cir. | 7 | Pizzeria Uno Corp. v. Temple, 747 F.2d 1522 (4th Cir. 1984). Opinion. |
| Roto-Rooter | 5th Cir., where they are called the digits of confusion | 7 | 513 F.2d 44, 45 (5th Cir.). Beebe. |
| Frisch's | 6th Cir. | 8 | Frisch's Rests. v. Elby's Big Boy, 670 F.2d 642 (6th Cir. 1982). Opinion. |
| Helene Curtis | 7th Cir. | 7 | 560 F.2d 1325, 1330 (7th Cir.). Beebe. |
| SquirtCo | 8th Cir. | 6 | 628 F.2d 1086, 1091 (8th Cir.). Beebe. |
| Sleekcraft | 9th Cir. | 8 | AMF Inc. v. Sleekcraft Boats, 599 F.2d 341, 348-49 (9th Cir. 1979). Opinion. |
| King of the Mountain | 10th Cir., from the Restatement of Torts section 729 (1938) | 6 | 185 F.3d 1084 (10th Cir. 1999). Opinion. |
| Frehling | 11th Cir. | 7 | 192 F.3d 1330, 1340 (11th Cir.). Beebe. |
Set the two most-searched lists side by side and six of the eight factors are the same idea in different words. Polaroid and Sleekcraft both ask about strength, similarity, proximity of the goods, actual confusion, channels, buyer care and the junior user's intent. Polaroid adds whether the senior owner will bridge the gap and the quality of the defendant's product; Sleekcraft adds expansion of the product lines. Lapp's ten split the same ground more finely. Both lists are printed in full in the questions below.
Worked example: a copycat store using a name close to yours
Take a common pattern. You sell one product line from a Shopify store. A new store appears in the same category under a name one word away from yours, using your own product photographs, bidding on your brand name, running the same creative to the same audience. All thirteen factors, scored against those facts.
- 1. The marks. One word apart, compared in their entireties and not side by side. Adding a word rarely saves anyone under TMEP 1207.01(b)(iii), and neither does respelling, because "[t]here is no 'correct' pronunciation of a trademark". For you.
- 2. The goods. Same category is the strong version. They need not be identical, and they do have to be related in a way you can show. For you.
- 3. Trade channels. Both stores sell direct to consumers on the open web. Two dated screenshots prove it. For you.
- 4. Buyer care. A $30 impulse purchase is the best version of this factor for you, and TMEP 1207.01(d)(vii) adds that "careful or sophisticated consumers are not immune from source confusion". For you.
- 5. Fame. A factor that helps giant brands. Its absence is not counted against you. Neutral.
- 6. The crowd. The factor that turned two of the eight decisions above. Unknown until you count the live registrations.
- 7. Actual confusion. Emails meant for the other store, refunds for orders you never took. For you if you have it, neutral if you do not.
- 8. Quiet coexistence. They launched last month, so there is no long quiet run for them to point at. Neutral now, and it starts working for them the longer you leave it.
- 9. Range of goods. One product line each, no house mark on either side. Neutral.
- 10. The market interface. No consent, no agreement, nothing that looks like sitting on your rights. Neutral.
- 11. Right to exclude. As wide as your registration, or as wide as the area of your first use if you never filed. As strong as your filing, and no stronger.
- 12. Extent of confusion. Substantial rather than de minimis: same item, same price, same audience. For you.
- 13. Anything else. Bad faith lives here. A store using your photographs is not arguing it never heard of you. For you.
On this fact pattern both key factors and the bad-faith factor point the same way, so confusion is the likely read unless factor 6 rescues them. A crowded name is how the SUN CHLORELLA and TWELVE COSMETICS applicants won. That is a read of one set of facts under a list with no scoring in it, not a prediction about yours.
Factor 6 is worth the count. Across the decisions on this page the rough scale reads like this. In In re Metabeauty, Ser. No. 97492557 (Jan. 28, 2025, not precedential, so it binds nobody and only shows how the Board reads this), ten third-party registrations made the shared element "conceptually weak, so we accord it a restricted scope of protection", and the refusal was reversed. In In re Sun Chlorella, Ser. Nos. 97350448 and 97350457 (Oct. 29, 2024, not precedential), sixteen live registrations covering noodles won even though the goods were legally identical: "[s]uch marks travel in a crowded field." But in In re VIP Fashion, Ser. No. 98276220 (Aug. 22, 2025, not precedential), "[t]he existence of three registrations falls well short of making a dent as to this factor." None of that is a rule the Board has stated, and all of it is as reported by TTABlog.
The evidence you can collect this week. Screenshots of both storefronts with the URL and date visible, the copycat's ads captured, your own dated first sales, and the confusion that arrives on its own. A founder on r/smallbusiness in August 2026 had a caller mention "bad reviews" that belonged to the other company, priced a lawyer's letter at $1,500 to $3,000, wrote it himself, and says the other side rebranded within a week. One founder's account, not a pattern. The professional version of that exhibit is a consumer survey, which belongs to a litigation budget.
One boundary before you write anything. Only the name runs through this test: your stolen photographs are a copyright claim and the shape is trade dress or a design patent, so what filing the wrong claim type costs you and what trade dress covers sort that out first, because the wrong claim type is how a strong case gets bounced by a platform form.
Worked example: your own Section 2(d) refusal
A founder posted his office action in full on r/TRADEMARK, which is why a real one can be walked through here. GOLD STAR OFFERS for night vision goggles in Class 9, refused over GOLD STAR, Registration No. 4060416, for gun, rifle and spotting scopes, also Class 9. Nonfinal, issued March 31, 2025, Examining Attorney Michala Blue, Law Office 129.
Two sentences do the work. "The marks create overall similar commercial impressions because the registrant's mark is fully incorporated in the applicant's mark." On the extra word: "The additional wording, 'OFFERS' ... is not the primary wording in the mark and thus, has the least impact ... Consumers are generally more inclined to focus on and remember the first word, prefix, or syllable in a mark." Then the clock: "File a response to this nonfinal Office action within three months of the 'Issue date' ... For a fee, applicant may request one three-month extension." The founder's instinct was to refile as GoldStarOffers or GoldStarOffers.com.
What does not work. Adding your house mark or a descriptive word, per TMEP 1207.01(b)(iii), which is where VEUVE ROYALE against VEUVE CLICQUOT and SAM EDELMAN against EDELMAN went. Arguing a limit that is not in your identification of goods: in In re BeBella, Ser. No. 97281194 (May 2, 2024, not precedential), the Board answered that "[t]he limitation that Applicant's goods are sold only through its website is not set forth in its identification of goods and so, can form no part of our analysis", affirming NUDE X over NAKED X even though the marks share no word. Arguing that the registrant sells only to commercial buyers fails the same way (In re Wyse London, Ser. No. 90742109, Mar. 13, 2025, not precedential). And a signed consent agreement is no free pass: in In re Ye Mystic Krewe of Gasparilla, 2025 USPQ2d 1291 (TTAB 2025), precedential, the Board affirmed anyway because there was "no indication that the goods will travel in separate trade channels".
What does work. Weakness in the cited mark, with the volume from factor 6 behind it, and only live registrations, because TMEP 1207.01(d)(iii) warns that "cancelled or expired third-party registrations ... are not probative". Pronunciation, when the words are not coined: In re Jimenez, 2025 USPQ2d 1355 (TTAB 2025), precedential, reversed GASPER ROOFING over JASPER CONTRACTORS because "neither GASPER or JASPER is a coined term". And relatedness, attacked at the evidence: In re Part of the Solution, Ser. Nos. 97791804 and 97791806 (Dec. 18, 2025, not precedential), reversed POTS over an identical POTS because "eight websites strike us as too few in number", telling examining attorneys to "focus on the actual language in the identification of goods or services in an application, rather than on broadened or generalized descriptions".
Where that walk lands. The response worth writing argues factor 6 with volume: live third-party GOLD STAR registrations on optics and related Class 9 goods, filed as evidence rather than asserted. The amendment that can move factor 2 is narrowing the identification of goods away from the registrant's scopes, since In re Part of the Solution tells examining attorneys to read "the actual language in the identification". What moves nothing is the applicant's own instinct. GoldStarOffers and GoldStarOffers.com keep the same sound, meaning and commercial impression, and "OFFERS" is added matter, and the examining attorney reasoned from the shared first words rather than from the addition, so the addition does not avoid confusion here.
Budgeting the reply: one firm that publishes a rate, Branding Iron Legal, states "[a]t this firm, responses start at $595", plus "$350 per class if the response adds a class", with final refusals, appeals and consent negotiations quoted separately; its page says the deadline and fee details were last reviewed August 2026. Before you decide, price your trademark filing before you send it, and for a mark already on the register, how long your trademark lasts and when it needs renewing. The cheap version of all of this is a knockout search for obvious blockers, then a full clearance search, before you file anything.
What you do with the answer
Six branches, and which one you are on depends on where the other party's mark sits right now. Find that in USPTO Trademark Search, the system that replaced TESS, and pull the file history in TSDR; a mark on the Principal Register is the one you can attack at the Board. Fees are from the USPTO fee schedule effective January 19, 2025 and last revised August 14, 2026.
Their application is pending and not yet published
File a letter of protest under 37 CFR 2.149, $150. It puts evidence in front of the examining attorney, capped at ten items and 75 pages per ground. Read the limits first: the decision whether to enter it is "final and non-reviewable", and it "does not stay or extend the time for filing a notice of opposition". You may also file one within 30 days after publication, but that later version must "establish a prima facie case for refusal", meaning enough on its face to justify one, which is the harder standard. Long shot, not plan.
Their application has published
Thirty days from publication in the Official Gazette, the USPTO's weekly list of marks cleared for opposition, per 37 CFR 2.101(c). An opposition costs $600 per class electronically or $700 on paper. The extension ladder is exact, and it is where people get caught. Your first request has two forms. Thirty days, granted on request, no fee. Or ninety days for good cause at $200. There is no third form, because 37 CFR 2.102(c)(1) says "[a] sixty-day extension is not available as a first extension of time to oppose." Take the thirty and your next move is a sixty-day request for good cause, which brings you to ninety. After ninety days you get one final sixty-day request at $400, granted only on the applicant's written consent or extraordinary circumstances, and the time "shall not be extended beyond 180 days from the date of publication". None of it is automatic. A US trademark watch on your brand names is how you find out inside the window rather than after it.
Their mark is already registered
Petition to cancel, $600 per class. Within five years of the registration date, 15 U.S.C. 1064(1) lets you use the same likelihood-of-confusion ground an examining attorney would have used. After five years the door narrows to the grounds in 1064(3), such as genericness, functionality, abandonment and fraud, none of which is about who used the name first. Being unregistered yourself shuts you out of neither window. Budget the calendar as well as the fee: the Trademark Public Advisory Committee's 2024 report puts processing time for the Board's trial cases, meaning oppositions and cancellations, at "three or more years".
They are just selling, with no filing anywhere
Then it is a platform report or a demand letter, and the form depends on where they sell. On Shopify, the three routes Shopify gives a rights owner. On a marketplace, which Amazon claim type fits your case. On social, reporting Instagram impersonation as a business. Bidding on your brand name is the initial interest confusion theory in the questions below, not a separate claim type. Every platform works inside the limit Etsy states plainly: "Etsy can't speak on behalf of intellectual property owners, nor is Etsy in a position to ... make legal determinations whether a shop's content infringes someone else's intellectual property." Etsy also "accepts counter notices for US-based copyright infringement reports only", so a trademark report there has no counter-notice path back. These cut both ways: one Shopify merchant posted in March 2024 that "after 4 years and millions in sales, Shopify has permanently closed my account despite legal advice and appeals". Write accordingly. Build the letter in your browser, and read the cease and desist template and when not to send it first.
Neither of you is moving
Then it is a consent or coexistence agreement, or a rebrand. A signature is not a free pass, as Gasparilla above shows: the agreement the Board weighs spells out the separate trade channels, goods and territory each side keeps. Price the alternative before you negotiate. A response starts at $595 at the one firm publishing a rate, an extension is $125, an added class is $350, and the TTABlog's hand count puts Section 2(d) appeal affirmances at 90% for 2025, so a weak case after the factor walk is expensive to keep buying. Rebranding while the name carries no equity is usually the cheapest line on this page, and it is what the founder on r/smallbusiness got from the other side inside a week.
You are the one who got refused
Three months from the issue date under 37 CFR 2.62(a)(1), extendable once by three months to a maximum of six from that date, for $125. Six months if the application came through the Madrid Protocol. Spend the time on the response rather than saving it for the appeal. If your goods are still ahead of you, the extension ladder before abandonment is the other clock running.
One number closes the loop. Gerhardt and Lee report that "only about 3% are challenged through opposition proceedings", so most names that read close to yours are never contested by anybody, which is exactly why finding them inside the window is the whole job. If you are on one of the first four branches: Knockoff does not decide whether two names are confusable and nobody here is a lawyer. What it does is find the stores using your product photographs, and watch new US applications daily so a close name reaches you inside the thirty-day window. See what Knockoff hands you when a name match turns up, or read the three plans, priced without a call. Shopify stores only today, US trademark watch only, and no filings made on your behalf.
When confusingly similar is not your claim
Half of what founders bring to this test belongs somewhere else, and the routing is worth more than another factor.
- They copied the product, not the name. The shape is trade dress or a design patent, never this test, and a functional feature is protected by nothing at all. The question below sets out what each of those requires.
- They are describing their own goods. 15 U.S.C. 1115(b)(4) protects use "otherwise than as a mark" of a term used "only to describe the goods", and KP Permanent Make-Up v. Lasting Impression I, 543 U.S. 111 (2004), adds that "the defendant has no independent burden to negate the likelihood of any confusion".
- They are naming you, reselling you, or got there first somewhere else. Nominative fair use, first sale and the good-faith remote junior user are three separate answers with three separate requirements, each one a question below.
- It is a joke, or a marketplace search result. Jack Daniel's Properties v. VIP Products, 599 U.S. 140 (2023), holds the Rogers test "does not apply" when the mark is used as a designation of source, and Multi Time Machine v. Amazon.com, 804 F.3d 930 (9th Cir. 2015), found "the eight-factor Sleekcraft test is not particularly apt" for a search results page.
- The famous brand is the one complaining. Dilution is a different statute and not the small brand's lane. 15 U.S.C. 1125(c) reaches blurring and tarnishment of famous marks whether or not anyone is confused, and fame there means nationally recognized, which what a registration buys you covers.
One last limit, because the certificate does less than people think. A registration is prima facie evidence of validity and ownership under 15 U.S.C. 1057(b), meaning evidence the other side then has to rebut, and 15 U.S.C. 1115(a) says in the same breath that it "shall not preclude another person from proving any legal or equitable defense or defect ... which might have been asserted if such mark had not been registered". Your registration is where the argument starts, not where it ends.
Questions
What are the 13 du Pont factors?
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They are the thirteen considerations the Court of Customs and Patent Appeals set out in In re E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 476 F.2d 1357, 1361 (C.C.P.A. 1973), and the Federal Circuit and the USPTO still apply them to every Section 2(d) question: the marks, the goods, trade channels, buyer care, fame, similar marks in use, actual confusion, quiet coexistence, range of goods, the market interface, the right to exclude, the extent of potential confusion, and any other established fact. There is no five-factor version and no scoring: "[a]ny single factor may control a particular case" (Stratus Networks v. UBTA-UBET, 955 F.3d 994, 998 (Fed. Cir. 2020)).
What is the most common reason a trademark application is refused?
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Likelihood of confusion. The USPTO says so on its own page, last updated November 30, 2023: "This is known as a likelihood of confusion, and it's the most common reason for refusing registration." Its published order of the grounds runs likelihood of confusion, then merely descriptive, primarily geographically descriptive, primarily merely a surname, and ornamentation.
What is a Section 2(d) refusal, and how long do I have to respond?
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It is a refusal to register under 15 U.S.C. 1052(d), because your mark so resembles a mark already registered, or previously used and not abandoned, as to be likely "to cause confusion, or to cause mistake, or to deceive." You get three months from the issue date under 37 CFR 2.62(a)(1), extendable once by three months to a maximum of six from that same date. The extension costs $125 on the USPTO fee schedule effective January 19, 2025.
What do you have to prove in a trademark case?
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Three things in most courts, not four. That you own a valid mark. That the other side used a mark in commerce without your consent. And that the use is likely to cause confusion. 15 U.S.C. 1114(1)(a) states the trigger for a registered mark and 1125(a)(1)(A) states it for an unregistered one. The standard is a preponderance of the evidence, meaning more likely than not, in court and at the Board alike (Cunningham v. Laser Golf, 222 F.3d 943 (Fed. Cir. 2000)).
What are the odds of winning a TTAB appeal of a likelihood of confusion refusal?
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Low, and stable. John Welch's annual hand count at TTABlog puts the Board's affirmance rate on Section 2(d) appeals at 92.5% in 2022, just under 85% in 2023 in his own words, about 89.5% in 2024, and 90% in 2025 across 206 decisions. Those are one practitioner's counts of the decisions he read, not a USPTO statistic. Read them as a reason to spend the effort on the response to the examining attorney rather than the appeal after it.
Can two companies use the same trademark?
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Yes, routinely, when the goods and the buyers do not overlap. TMEP 1207.01(a)(i) says that if the goods "are not related or marketed in such a way that they would be encountered by the same persons ... then, even if the marks are identical, confusion may not be likely." The Board reversed on that ground alone in In re Part of the Solution, Ser. Nos. 97791804 and 97791806 (Dec. 18, 2025, not precedential), POTS against POTS. PLAYERS for underwear and PLAYERS for shoes coexist as well.
Does a claim require proof that someone was confused?
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No. TMEP 1207.01(d)(ii) states that "the relevant test is likelihood of confusion, not actual confusion; thus, it is unnecessary to show actual confusion." It helps when you have it, and it is the one exhibit a store owner collects without paying anybody. One founder posting on r/smallbusiness in August 2026: "I got a call from a potential client saying 'I saw your bad reviews' turns out they were looking at the other company's reviews but thought it was us."
What are the Sleekcraft factors, and how do they differ from the Polaroid and Lapp factors?
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Sleekcraft is the Ninth Circuit's eight-factor list from AMF Inc. v. Sleekcraft Boats, 599 F.2d 341, 348-49 (9th Cir. 1979): "strength of the mark; proximity of the goods; similarity of the marks; evidence of actual confusion; marketing channels used; type of goods and the degree of care likely to be exercised by the purchaser; defendant's intent in selecting the mark; and likelihood of expansion of the product lines." Polaroid is the Second Circuit's eight and Lapp is the Third Circuit's ten. The content is largely the same, and venue decides which list applies.
What does bridging the gap mean?
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It asks whether the senior brand is likely to expand into the junior user's market, so a nearby category is treated as closer than it looks today. The Second Circuit lists "the likelihood that the prior owner will bridge the gap" among the Polaroid variables in Polaroid v. Polarad Elecs., 287 F.2d 492, 495 (2d Cir. 1961), and Sleekcraft calls the same idea "likelihood of expansion of the product lines."
What is initial interest confusion?
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It is confusion that pulls a shopper in and clears up before they buy. In Brookfield Communications v. West Coast Entertainment, 174 F.3d 1036 (9th Cir. 1999), using another brand's name to divert searchers "improperly benefits from the goodwill" its owner built, and doing it in metatags is "much like posting a sign with another's trademark in front of one's store." It has a hard limit: in Multi Time Machine v. Amazon.com, 804 F.3d 930 (9th Cir. 2015), clear labeling defeated the theory on a search results page.
What is reverse confusion?
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It is the mirror of the ordinary case. In forward confusion buyers think the copycat is you. In reverse confusion a much larger junior user floods the market until buyers think you are the copycat. The Ninth Circuit defined it in Dreamwerks Prod. Grp. v. SKG Studio, 142 F.3d 1127 (9th Cir. 1998): "[i]n a reverse confusion case, however, we must focus on the strength of the junior user's mark." Ironhawk Techs. v. Dropbox, 2 F.4th 1150 (9th Cir. 2021), reversed a summary judgment over a dissent, so the small brand got its day in court.
Do I need a consumer survey?
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They exist, and almost no store owner commissions one. A survey is the professional way to put actual confusion into evidence, and it is expensive enough to belong to a litigation budget rather than a demand letter. Nothing requires one either way: TMEP 1207.01(d)(ii) says it is "unnecessary to show actual confusion" at all. The version you can afford is the confusion that arrives on its own, screenshotted with the date visible.
Can I oppose someone else's trademark application, and what does it cost?
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Yes, once the application publishes. 37 CFR 2.101(c) gives you thirty days after publication, and an opposition costs $600 per class filed electronically or $700 on paper. The ladder in 37 CFR 2.102(c) is exact. A first request is either thirty days free or ninety days for good cause at $200, because "[a] sixty-day extension is not available as a first extension of time to oppose." Take the thirty and you may then request sixty more for good cause. After ninety days, one final sixty-day request at $400, and never past 180 days.
Can somebody use my brand name to refer to me?
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Yes, when they are naming you rather than branding themselves. New Kids on the Block v. News America Publishing, 971 F.2d 302 (9th Cir. 1992), sets three conditions for nominative fair use: the product must be "not readily identifiable without use of the trademark", only "so much of the mark ... as is reasonably necessary" may be used, and nothing may "suggest sponsorship or endorsement" by you. A comparison chart usually clears it. Your logo in their header does not.
Can somebody resell my products under my name?
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Usually yes, if the goods are genuine and the seller is honest about what they are. In Champion Spark Plug v. Sanders, 331 U.S. 125 (1947), reconditioned plugs "though used, are nevertheless Champion plugs and not those of another make", and "[f]ull disclosure gives the manufacturer all the protection to which he is entitled." First sale does not cover materially different goods, and it is not a license to dress their storefront as yours.
What if they were using the name first, somewhere else?
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Sometimes that wins, and it rarely survives a registration. United Drug Co. v. Theodore Rectanus Co., 248 U.S. 90 (1918), protects a user who adopted the same mark "in good faith, without notice" in a separate trading area. But 15 U.S.C. 1057(c) makes a filing constructive use nationwide from its filing date once the registration issues, so the shield covers only the territory that user already held before that date.
They copied my product, not my name. Is that a trademark case?
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Not this one. A copied shape is trade dress or a design patent, and TMEP 1202.02(b)(i) says product design "is never inherently distinctive", so it protects nothing until it acquires distinctiveness. Wal-Mart v. Samara Bros., 529 U.S. 205, 212 (2000), puts it as "design, like color, is not inherently distinctive." If the copied feature is functional, nothing protects it: TrafFix, 532 U.S. 23, 33 (2001), makes a feature functional as a matter of law where it is "essential to the use or purpose of the product". Stolen photographs are a copyright claim.
What is the Rogers test?
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It is the First Amendment screen courts apply to marks used inside expressive works, and Jack Daniel's Properties v. VIP Products, 599 U.S. 140 (2023), narrowed it: "[w]hen an alleged infringer uses a trademark as a designation of source for the infringer's own goods, the Rogers test does not apply." A parody sold as a brand runs through the ordinary confusion factors instead, where the joke "may properly figure in assessing the likelihood of confusion."
Is a "confusingly similar" domain name the same test?
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No, and the words are a trap. The Anticybersquatting Consumer Protection Act and the UDRP both ask whether a domain name is "identical or confusingly similar" to a mark, which is a threshold comparison of the string, decided alongside bad faith and rights or legitimate interests. It is not the du Pont or Sleekcraft weighing described on this page, and a domain can clear one test and fail the other.
On that last one: the domain scanner lists the misspelled versions of your domain that already exist.
Where the data came from, and what it cannot tell you
The source is the USPTO Open Data Portal product TRTYRAP, "Trademark Full Text XML Data (No Images), Annual Applications", thirteen parts and 2.2 GB: parts 57 to 62 covering filings from September 2016 to August 2018, and parts 76 to 79 covering February 2022 to March 2023. Parts are ordered by serial number, which tracks filing order, so a serial-contiguous block fully covers a filing-date window. Each case file became one JSON row. Every definition was read from the file's own description text rather than guessed: an office action is at least one CNRT event, "NON-FINAL ACTION WRITTEN"; registered means a registration number is present and is not 0000000; dead means an ABN event with no registration number. Outcomes are mutually exclusive with priority registered over dead over pending, because a minority of files carry both after a petition to revive. The scripts that produced every figure are saved alongside this page in the repository at .seo/briefs/likelihood-of-confusion-scripts/, and the refresh is fetch_annual.sh, then extract_cohort.py, then final_stats.py. We re-cut it every September.
Two independent re-derivations passed. Recounting the 2022 office-action rate with the GNRT and GNRN event codes instead of CNRT gives 54.49%, 54.48% and 54.48%, agreeing to a hundredth of a point. Re-classifying outcomes from the status code instead of the events gives 55.00% registered against 56.00%, the gap being registrations later cancelled. Three adjacent cohorts hold the same band: 2016 Q4 at 57.02% on 89,776 applications, January to August 2018 at 55.27% on 307,020, and 2023 Q1 at 54.52% on 124,683.
Known limits, and they matter. "Office action" is not "refusal", and 56.3% must never be read as one. No refusal-ground field exists in any USPTO bulk trademark product: the full tag inventory carries flags for Section 2(f), Section 12(c), Section 15, concurrent use and a pending opposition, and none of the event codes names a statutory ground. Beebe and Fromer say the same thing about the same data at 112 The Trademark Reporter 933, which is why they built a full-text corpus instead. Suspension is a confusion-shaped signal rather than a count of Section 2(d) citations, so treat it as color. This is a census of a filing-date window and not a sample, so the phrasing is always "applications filed in calendar 2017". The attorney flag is a current snapshot, so "no attorney" means "never hired counsel", not "unrepresented throughout". The 2022 cohort is 8.76% unresolved and its registration and abandonment shares are floors. The 2017 and 2022 registration rates are not a trend, because the cohorts have different maturity. And the rows carry no mark text, no owner names and no attorney names, only a boolean for an attorney of record.
Cite this page
Pigford, Josh. "Likelihood of confusion: how the USPTO and courts decide if a copycat's name is too close to yours." Knockoff, published September 5, 2026. https://knockoff.co/guides/likelihood-of-confusion
Sources and dates
Every source below was read September 5, 2026.
- Statutes. 15 U.S.C. 1052(d) for the registration bar. 1114(1) for a registered mark in court and 1125(a)(1)(A) for an unregistered one. 1057(b) and (c) for the presumption and constructive use, 1115(a) and (b)(4) for what the presumption does not preclude and for descriptive fair use, and 1064(1) and (3) for the cancellation windows.
- Regulations and fees. 37 CFR 2.62 for the three-month response period and its one extension, 2.101 and 2.102 for the opposition window and the exact extension ladder, and 2.149 for the letter of protest. The USPTO fee schedule, effective January 19, 2025 and last revised August 14, 2026, for $150, $125, $200, $400, $600 and $700.
- The manual. The TMEP, current edition May 2026, sections 1207.01 and its subsections (a)(i), (b), (b)(iii), (b)(iv), (d)(ii), (d)(iii) and (d)(vii), plus 1202.02(a)(iii)(A) and 1202.02(b)(i) for functionality and product design.
- USPTO pages. Likelihood of confusion, last updated November 30, 2023, for the sentence quoted at the top of this page. Possible grounds for refusal of a mark for the order of the grounds.
- The factor lists, read as opinion text. In re E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 476 F.2d 1357 (C.C.P.A. 1973); Polaroid Corp. v. Polarad Electronics Corp., 287 F.2d 492 (2d Cir. 1961); AMF Inc. v. Sleekcraft Boats, 599 F.2d 341 (9th Cir. 1979); Interpace Corp. v. Lapp, Inc., 721 F.2d 460 (3d Cir. 1983); Frisch's Restaurants v. Elby's Big Boy, 670 F.2d 642 (6th Cir. 1982); Pizzeria Uno Corp. v. Temple, 747 F.2d 1522 (4th Cir. 1984); King of the Mountain Sports v. Chrysler Corp., 185 F.3d 1084 (10th Cir. 1999); Basile v. Basile, 899 F.2d 35 (D.C. Cir. 1990). The Fifth, Seventh, Eighth and Eleventh Circuit rows are as catalogued by Barton Beebe, "An Empirical Study of the Multifactor Tests for Trademark Infringement", 94 California Law Review 1581 (2006), notes 3 to 11, which is also the source of the McCarthy quotation.
- Published data. Barton Beebe and Jeanne Fromer, 112 The Trademark Reporter 901 (November to December 2022), at 933 and 967, for the 10.6% to 16.0% series and for their statement that the USPTO case files dataset does not record the ground of a refusal. Deborah Gerhardt and Jon Lee, 112 The Trademark Reporter 865 (2022), at 872, 894 and 897, for the 46% against 60% counsel gap and the 3% opposition rate. The Trademark Public Advisory Committee 2024 annual report for "three or more years".
- TTAB decisions and the affirmance series. Read through TTABlog, which reproduces the Board's own block quotes, in four annual review posts published January 10, 2023, January 16, 2024, January 13, 2025 and January 8, 2026. Every affirmance figure is John Welch's own hand count of the decisions he read. The decisions cited here carry their serial numbers or USPQ2d cites so you can pull the originals at ttabvue.uspto.gov, and each is marked precedential or not precedential where it applies.
- Practitioner and platform pages. Etsy's intellectual property policy for both quoted sentences. Branding Iron Legal's office action response cost page for $595 and $350 per class, which states its deadline and fee details were last reviewed August 2026. The three founder accounts are public posts on r/smallbusiness (August 12, 2026), r/shopify (March 14, 2024) and r/TRADEMARK, each quoted as one person's account and not as a general rule.
- Our own figures. The USPTO Open Data Portal product TRTYRAP, "Trademark Full Text XML Data (No Images), Annual Applications". Cohort definition, event codes, n, both re-derivations and every limitation are set out under how we counted above.
What we deliberately left off this page. The "about 1 in 5 applications get a 2(d) refusal" figure that circulates on law firm blogs, because no USPTO figure supports it and no bulk product records the ground. Any 2026 Board affirmance rate, because the year is not counted yet. Any litigation cost estimate, survey price, or threshold for how much confusion a survey has to show, because none of the ones we found had a source we could open.
Knockoff sells brand protection software and is not a neutral party. Knockoff is not a law firm and this page is general information rather than legal advice, written September 5, 2026. Statutes, fees, manual sections and Board practice all change, so read the source before you rely on a figure here.